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One match to go to decide the winner of this year’s US Open Women’s Draw.
Serena Williams (1/5) is playing Caroline Wozniacki (7/2) at 17.00BST on Sunday. Can we get an upset in the final is the question we are looking at today?
Serena is going for her 6th US Open title here at Flushing Meadows, and she has won in both of the last 2 years, although both those years she has been pushed to 3 sets in the final (16/5 to win 2-1 on Sunday).
Her run through this year’s draw has simply been stunning, in 6 matches she has only dropped 26 games and won every match in straight sets. That’s 12 sets of Tennis conceding only just over 2 games to her opponent in each set on average, indeed she has not conceded more than 3 games in a set to date this year.
Caroline Wozniacki the number 10 seed has conceded just 2 sets of Tennis in the tournament, but has been pushed much harder in many of her matches, including a very tight semi-final against Shuai Peng which she was winning 7-6 4-3 when Peng had to retire due to injury.
On paper at least this looks like a simple enough task for Serena who is 4/7 to win in straight sets again, however despite leading the H2H matches 8-1 looking at the matches the 2 have played this year shows just how close this match could be.
2 victories for Serena 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 in the quarter final in Montreal, and 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 in the semi-final in Cincinnati tells a story of a potentially very competitive match, and this one is 19/10 to go the 3 sets again.
In 5 of their 9 matches Wozniacki has won the opening set (5/2 in the final tomorrow), but only held on once to win. Serena is priced at 24/5 to lose the opening set and to come back and win, both of these look attractive based on the stats of the players when they have met
Just one other factor to consider, Caroline Wozniackis form over the previous couple of years has dropped off from the levels which saw her reach the world number 1 ranking at the end of the year in both 2010 and 2011. However since her split from golfer Rory McIlroy earlier in the year her form has slowly returned to somewhere near her previous best, and we all know what has happened to those elusive golfing victories for Rory since the split!
Mark Swarbrick (Head Trader)